China Will Be Home to 329 Million Retirees in 2050

Tom Arnstein | Feb 7, 2017 8:30 am | Add a comment | 1493 reads

The number of estimated retirees (people over 65 years of age) that China will be home to by 2050 i.e. over three times the current number, and more than the combined populations of Germany, Japan, France, and Britain. A combination of 36 years of life under the one-child policy and huge improvements in healthcare – helping to increase life expectancy and decrease birth rates – means that China is heading towards a period of extreme social and economic uncertainty presented by a vast ageing population.

One of the biggest economic knock-on effects will arise from that fact that by 2040, China’s workforce will dwindle from five workers for every retiree to an average of just over one (the working-age population shrank by nearly 5 million people in 2015 alone). Such a decrease will cause drastic losses in production capabilities and put exceptional strain on the country’s healthcare services, which will have to cater to the needs of these additional seniors.

There are also questions of how China will implement a nationwide pension system that will help provide basic healthcare to poorer rural families. It is unlikely that the belated loosening of childbirth restrictions will ease China’s demographic woes, as many now deem it too costly to have a second child, and women are more inclined to seek work over settling to care for a large family.

If there’s one upside to all of this, it’s that you’re unlikely to ever be alone if you do decide to stay on in China, but you better go claim your spot on the neighborhood play set now.

This article first appeared in the Jan/Feb 2017 issue of the Beijinger.