5 Beijing Census Takeaways: Capital's Data Reflects China's Broader Population Trends, and Woes

Last week, China released the findings of its official Seventh National Population Census, a once-in-a-decade dive into the age, sex, and educational background of China's 1.4 billion people.

On Wednesday, those findings were further dissected with the release of Beijing's census data, giving insight into the makeup of the capital's population. In all, the findings are mostly reflective of the broader trends in the national data and indicate that Beijing as a city faces many of the same issues as China writ large, namely, an ongoing imbalance of the sexes and a rapidly aging population. However, there are also some positives such as a higher rate of education and reducing illiteracy rate.

Other trends, meanwhile, are likely the result of Beijing-specific government policies. One policy of note was Beijing's push to cap the city's population at 23 million by the end of 2020 by relocating people from downtown to suburban areas. Launched in 2016, by the beginning of November last year, Beijing's permanent population stood at 21.893 million (compared to 19.612 million in 2010), which on the surface marks the policy a success.

In reality, of course, a significant proportion of that reduction was likely due to COVID-19, with many people fleeing the city to head home or abroad. That includes thousands of foreigners, many of whom have decided not to come back or are awaiting their chance to return (see a more in-depth breakdown of the foreigner data here).

Without further ado, here are five big takeaways from Beijing's recent census data.

Beijing's permanent "migrant" population increases

Among Beijing's permanent population, the number of people from other provinces and cities now stands at 8.418 million, accounting for 38.5 percent of the total. That's a considerable increase of 19.5 percent (1.373 million) out-of-towners compared to 2010, and a trend further solidifies the capital as one of the most diverse in the country.

The "family of three" continues to shrink

Where diversity outside the home is flourishing, it's not looking so great inside. The size of Beijing households continued to shrink and now stands at an average of 2.31 persons per household, a decrease of 0.14 persons from 2010.

Among the city’s permanent population, "family households" make up 19.014 million (86.9 percent) of the total, while "collective households" make up the remaining 2.879 million (13.1 percent).

The shrinking of the average family reflects China's broader trend of its people, especially those in urban areas, not wanting to have more babies despite the laxation of the one-child policy back in late 2015. It also does not bode well for China's aging population (more on that below).

There are fewer but still many more men than women

Beijing's sex ratio further dropped from 106.8 in 2010 to 104.7 in 2020 (where 100 equals a 1:1 sex ratio), meaning that men outnumber women by an estimated 497,000 in the capital. Men now represent 11.195 million (51.1 percent) of Beijing's permanent residents and women make up 10.698 million (48.9 percent), which while still a long way from balanced, nevertheless shows increasingly positive prospects for the city's bachelors and bachelorettes.

Beijingers are a scholarly bunch

For every 100,000 people in Beijing, 41,980 people now have a university education or above (9.191 million people in total), a sizeable increase when compared to 2010's average of 31,499 people per 100,000. In addition, permanent residents aged 15 years and up in the capital received an average of 12.6 years of education, up from 11.7 in 2010, while the illiteracy rate declined from 1.7 percent to 0.8.

Nearly a fifth of the population is over 60

Now to the serious stuff. Compared to 2010, the proportion of Beijing's permanent population aged 0-14 increased by 3.3 percent (okay), and those aged 15-59 decreased by 10.4 percent (good), but the population aged 60 and above rose by 7.1 (very, very bad). Meanwhile, the population aged 65 and above rose by 4.6 percent. What that means is that people aged 60 and above now constitute close to one-fifth (4.299 million) of Beijing's total population, a trend that is only going to deepen.

The country's aging population stands to test China's health care system as well as compound the issue of there being fewer workers able to support retirees, and the economy, in the years to come. For now, let's just enjoy the fact that people are living nearly three years longer on average since 2010.

READ: Beijing's Foreign Population Dips

Image: languagetrainers.com.au