Beicology: When Will Spring Finally Arrive in Beijing?

This week’s chill feels more like winter than spring in the 'Jing.

The capital's temperatures and weather have been all over the place throughout this month, and with two days of rain, gloomy weather and more cold, it's got us wondering: when will spring finally come to Beijing?

To answer this question, we delved into previous instances of weather phenomena like this, using data from the city's Meteorological Bureau.

Beijing’s normal last freeze

If the past is any indication of the present, then Beijing can still expect the chance of lower temperatures hovering around for the next week or two. 

This is because the final freeze of spring is usually observed throughout March and April in Beijing. What is a final freeze? It's a phenomenon of a daily average temperature drop of more than 8 ℃ in 24 hours or more than 10 ℃ in 48 hours. Beijing has had a 57 percent chance of experiencing final freeze in the past 30 years. So far, the city has not been hit by final freeze yet.

So, this raises another question: will Beijing have another final freeze this year? Well, it is still likely. Although the meteorological bureau predicts that cities in the north, including Beijing, will likely experience warmer weather throughout April, they also pointed out that the city is likely to have frequent cold-air activities in April, and they advised Beijingers to keep their warm winter coats out just in case final freeze hits.

Tracking the last snowfall in Beijing

The meteorological data shows that that Beijing usually experiences the last snowfall of the year around mid-March each year. Looking back at more than 60 years of local weather data, Beijing experienced its final snowfall as late as Apr 21 in 1959.  The average last snowfall date in Beijing is Mar 17. This year Beijing just experienced a measurable snowfall of 5.1 mm on Mar 18, which is about the same time of the city's final snowfall every year. 

When will spring finally arrive?

You would think that spring has already arrived in Beijing now that we're well past the official date of the beginning of spring, the spring equinox, which takes place around Mar 20 or 21 each year. However, based on meteorological data, the city hasn't entered spring just yet.

According to the meteorological bureau, one way to note the arrival of spring is when the average temperature is higher than 10 ℃ for five consecutive days. The latest weather forecast shows that the average temperature in Beijing today is only 7.5℃，which has clearly failed to meet that standard.

Although this may seem like the chill will hang around for some extra days, the good news is that the average temperature in Beijing will be around11.9℃ in the coming five days.

Meanwhile, the average temperature will also hit an all-time-high this weekend, clocking in at a forecasted 12.2 ℃,  which means, even with the stops and starts, spring really is just around the corner!

Read: Beicology: New Study Reveals What Beijing is Doing Right on Bird Biodiversity 

Images: Weibo, Irene Li