This Safe & Sane Group Poll Provides Some Insight Into Covid Right Now

The Beijingers | Dec 15, 2022 5:47 pm | 3 comments | 760 reads

Editor’s note: The results of the poll in this article sheds a bit of light on how quickly Covid is spreading in the capital, but should not be mistaken for a scientifically accurate, demographics-based analysis of Beijing as a whole.

Chances are if you’re in Beijing now and still don’t know anyone who has caught Covid as of this week, you’re one of a lucky few.

Incidents of people getting sick with Covid in the capital and elsewhere in China have skyrocketed over the past two weeks following the loosening of epidemic control measures. But the exact number of cases is now hard to pinpoint with official numbers no longer being published (make of this what you will).

We took it upon ourselves to get a poll going in our Safe & Sane WeChat groups to see how many people had either (a) gotten Covid in the first 14 days of December 2022; (b) gotten it prior to December; or (c) not gotten it yet at all.

The numbers show that 3,007 of the approximately 8,000 people in our Safe & Sane groups, roughly 38 percent, took part in this poll. This is a massive response rate and is more than enough data to draw statistical conclusions about the group as a whole.

Nevertheless, these results can only reasonably be said to be a representation of the Safe & Sane population, for which no particular demographic profile is available. But when compared to Beijing as a whole, we can deduce that it is likely skewed in the following ways: (1) heavily skewed towards the foreign population; (2) heavily concentrated in Chaoyang/eastern Beijing; (3) concentrated on 25-55 year old individuals (relatively few children and elderly); (4) by nature is an English-speaking population.

Now, on to the figures:

– 58 percent (1,742 respondents) currently have Covid or contracted it after Dec 1, 2022

– 9 percent (264 respondents) had Covid prior to Dec 1, 2022

– 33 percent (1,001 respondents) currently do not have/never had Covid

Some observations:

– It took only two weeks for this wave of COVID-19 to infect significantly more than half of Safe & Sane group members.

– Press reports indicate Omicron infections are often asymptomatic. This fact combined with a shortage of antigen test kits and a delay in results coming from public testing stations likely means the actual infection rate is higher than 58 percent.

– This wave has infected 6.6 times more people than all previous waves combined.

– One in three members remain unaffected as of today (Dec 15).

– With the understanding that this poll can in no way be called a representative sample of the city of Beijing, it is nevertheless easy to conclude that the infection rate in Beijing could be approaching these numbers.

Playing around without using scientifically precise statistical theory and numbers, let’s say Beijing as a whole only has HALF the percentage of infected people contained in our Safe & Sane respondent sample – i.e. 29 percent vs. 58 percent. Multiply 29 percent by 20 million people or so and you have 5.8 million infections at this time.

That’s a lot, folks.

These results are also echoed in a similar poll released yesterday by a popular Beijing-centric WeChat account that garnered nearly 30,000 responses, indicating that 58 percent of respondents have had Covid. Their poll didn't differentiate responses by time as ours did, but it's still hauntingly similar.

The good news is that people are reporting Omicron symptoms are often mild or moderate, hospitalizations are few and far between, and most people are able to recover at home without the need for specialized medicines other than basic pain and fever relievers.

If you'd like to keep up-to-date-with Covid in Beijing in light of recent changes, simply add TBJButler on WeChat (QR code below) and ask to be added to one of our Safe & Sane groups.

READ: Beijing Battles Medicine Shortages as Covid Restrictions Eased

Images: Unsplash, The Beijingers

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BauLuo's picture BauLuo Submitted by Guest on Sun, 12/18/2022 - 16:36

So the private high school I am working at in Zhejiang had the Mighty Clovid come rip roaring through. Dozens of students testing positve, entire student body sent home. So Friday afternoon all the staff... teaching staff, administrative staff etc (of the English Department, and other departmenst) all ordered to get single test tube Covid test. Which I duly du. Of the 15 members of our wechat group, 14 of them tested positive, got themselves a red code. Thus need to isolate. A handful, (i think 4 or 5) had mild symptoms.. low grade fever, coughing. One of the bunch, in short ..me, had a negative result, no symptoms whatsoever. It just so happens that one of the bunch, that is : me, has never had a vaccination in his adult life and all the rest had gotten every shot, every booster, whatever they were told to get. This hardly a scientific review of evidence, nonetheless, scratch yer head a wee bit.

I am Doktor Aethelwise Snapdragoon.

BauLuo's picture BauLuo Submitted by Guest on Fri, 12/16/2022 - 18:31

Giovanni Martini wrote:
BauLuo wrote:

Tell people Sufis don't get COVID and you'd have a line from halal to breakfast bangin' on the doors of every mosque in town.

It takes a special kinna Musclemann tho to be a Sufi, -- yas gotsa be a good dancer fer one, and it helps to be aShamsed a bit. Best not to thro out the Bab with the Ba'ath water, Tho. That would be inSufierable.

(enter the code as above so below; however spacelessly)

I am Doktor Aethelwise Snapdragoon.

BauLuo's picture BauLuo Submitted by Guest on Thu, 12/15/2022 - 22:38

There is a very pertinent Sufi tale that relates in a fundamental way to the incipience and progress of the dreaded illness that plagues our world. Don't be fooled by my words. When I say plague, I mean PLAGUE, BUDDY!

Anyways, a great prophet was raised up from the wilderness, --as the world is wont to do,-- to admonish, warn, and to save.

Kidder was his name. This apt named Kidder explained that soon all the water in the world would disappear, and be supplanted, after 40 days and 40 nights, with different water.

`The new water will drive you mad' Kidder explained, `To save yourselves, you must hoard all the water here on earth. Save it, and you will be saved.'

Alas, but one man paid Kidder heed. This fellow, mashang, (that's an adverb, not a name) began collecting all the water he could. From rivers and streams, ponds and pools-- nay, verily into puddles, cricks, ditches and sloughs did the water he source.

This water he did save... wineskins, plastic tubs, empty 2.46 liter ergoutou bottles... any vessel of the name `vessel' did he fill, and stashed away in a secret cave, which location was known only to himself. That's... um... like why it was secret.

Lo and behold, old Kidder weren't kiddin, and yuelaiyue, the rivers up did dry, the merciful rain from heaven did up an desist, lakes did Saharafy,-- in short the world was dry as a leftover chickenfinger bone left on a south facing windowsill in August.

Nonetheless, this unnamed man, sitting alone in his Stygian tenebrosity, remained well hydrated, and ate lots of garlic, mung bean sprouts, read hisself some Sufi tales (in Brail, obviously, duh) thus remaining hale and hearty.

True to the prophet Kidder's words, after a time, times, and half a time, did the new waters replenish the lakes and pools and rivers.

Those residents that did survive, but barely, the drought, were overjoyed and supped their fill of delicious new water.

The cave man (now known to be known as `Mashang') thus returned his way to his fellow village folk in hope of re-commencing his erstwhile communion themswith.

`Hail there fellow wellmet'! (that's an adverb, not a name) he was heard to remonstrate with erst companions.

Alas, what but blank eyes though did dodder through their slobbering gulps of `new' water.

Mashang (that's a name, not an adverb) was crushed. The villagers had all gone mad, what's more, contended that in fact he-Mashang- was the one that was mad.

Such being the case Mashang was driven to isolation, loneliness and bereftness of human companionship.

At long last Mashang could bear it no more: `Give me some of your mad water!' finally Mashang bellowed.

Thus: imbibing, slaking, and forgetting-- indeed did Mashang come to love Big Brother.

--------------------------------------------------

Not making this up. Indeed this is a Sufi tale . Them Sufi's clever folks they is. Enough to give one hope, of a sort.

I am Doktor Aethelwise Snapdragoon.

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