Ren Shan, Ren Hai
It’s no surprise that Beijing’s population is growing, but the figures are still astounding: experts have predicted that by 2020, 20 million people will live in the capital. The Peking University report (by way of the China Daily) also reveals that come 2020, 12 percent of the population will be “considered aged,” while younger people will make up 13 percent of the city.
Meanwhile, the birthrate in the capital has been outpacing the death rate in recent years, particularly in this, the year of the Golden Pig (which, as it turns out, is actually the year of the Earthen Pig). Fifty years ago, around the founding of the PRC, the city’s population was just under 5 million.
There has been some controversy, however, regarding current population figures: last year the number was estimated to be have grown from 13.7 million to 15.4 million in the previous five years, but figures released by the Public Security Bureau this past August show the number to have grown to over 17 million.
Of these, there are over 12 million "permanent residents" in possession of a hukou, or housing permit, while there are over 5 million migrants (almost 1/3 of the total population) who have come to the capital for work - a number that has increased dramatically since hukou restrictions were eased up.
Suffice it to say that a projection of 20 million by 2020 might be underestimating things a wee bit.
All this comes in the wake of another recent announcement by the National Bureau of Statistics (by way of Xinhua) that by the end of last year, China’s rural population had shrunk down to 737 million – making up just 56 percent of the country’s total officially estimated population of 1.3 billion (in 2001, the country’s rural population stood at just over 64 percent, and back in 1990 it was 74 percent).
Thus far, no conclusive data has been released this year about the number of foreigners now residing in the capital. Just how many laowai now live here is anyone’s guess, but we’ll venture our own and say that the number now exceeds 300,000.
Links and Sources:
China Daily: 20 million in Beijing by 2020
chinanews.cn: NBS: China's rural population shrinks to 56% of total
chinadaily.com.cn: Aging Population 'A Challenge'
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The Australian: Beijing Population at Saturation
IHT.com: Beijing's environment shows strains as population passes 17 million